New development trend of paper industry under the

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The new development trend of the paper industry under the rapid expansion of production capacity (II)

in recent years, China's consumption demand for box board paper has been increasing, with an average annual growth rate of 13.71% in the last decade. There is a large gap between supply and demand in the market, and the import volume has been maintained at about 1million tons. Based on the current industrial development trend in China, the demand for carton board paper will reach 20.7 million tons in 2010

household paper household paper is one of the daily necessities closely related to the lives of consumers. The consumption of household paper is directly related to the speed of economic development, people's 337 indoor air living standards and the degree of civilization. China has become the second largest consumer market of household paper in the world, second only to the United States. In 2003, the consumption of toilet paper in China reached 3.1 million tons, with an average annual growth of 8%. Household paper is becoming a huge consumer market in China

at present, one of the remarkable characteristics of China's household paper market is the unbalanced structure of consumption varieties. In 2000, toilet paper accounted for 56% of the world's household paper, tissue paper and toilet paper accounted for 21%, paper towels and paper napkins accounted for 12% and 4% respectively. However, data shows that tissue paper and toilet paper account for only 0.2% in China, and only 1.5% even in promising cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. That is to say, the proportion of toilet tissue sales in China still occupies an absolute advantage. In the coming period of time, the consumption demand of household paper in China will be diversified and transition to medium and high-end products

it is estimated that China's GDP will maintain an annual growth rate of about 7% by 2010. Considering the negative factors such as economic development and population growth rate declining year by year, toilet paper consumption in large cities tends to be saturated, the annual growth rate of toilet paper consumption is synchronized with or slightly lower than the growth of national GDP

special paper a cigarette paper market demand depends on the development of the tobacco industry. There are 310million smokers in China, accounting for about 25% of the world's smoking population. Cigarette production accounts for 32% of the world's cigarette production, ranking first in the world, but the export volume is small, mainly supplying the domestic market. In 2003, the consumption of cigarette paper in China was about 96000 tons. Cigarette paper imports account for about 10% of consumption. As the export growth of tobacco products is difficult, the demand for cigarette paper will remain stable in the next few years, with an annual consumption demand of about 100000 tons. With the improvement of the quality of domestic cigarette paper, the import volume will be further reduced. B the market demand of electrolytic capacitor paper depends on the development of electronic components and equipment. With the continuous development of science and technology, the electrolytic capacitor industry has ushered in unprecedented prosperity, which has also brought unprecedented development to the electrolytic capacitor paper. In 2002, the global consumption of electrolytic capacitors was about 14200 tons, an increase of about 14% year-on-year, of which the domestic consumption of electrolytic capacitor paper was about 6500 tons, an increase of about 18% year-on-year. This year, it is estimated that the global consumption of electrolytic capacitor paper will reach 20000 tons. The position of grounding installation should be convenient for wiring, with an average annual growth of about 12%, of which the domestic consumption is about 10000 tons, with an average annual growth of about 16%. It is expected that the consumption of electrolytic capacitor paper will increase by 15% in the future

c carbon free copy paper carbon free copy paper is applied to multi linked forms, bills, computer terminals, etc. the market demand depends on the development level of modern office automation. With the rapid development of science, technology and information in China's economy in the past decade, modern office facilities have been popularized, and domestic high-quality carbon free carbon paper is in short supply. Globally, the consumption of carbon free carbon paper accounts for 2% of the total consumption of all kinds of paper. According to this level, China's annual consumption of all kinds of paper is more than 50 million tons, so the annual consumption demand of carbon free carbon paper in China is at least 1 million tons. According to the survey of China Paper Association, the annual growth rate of China's demand for carbon free carbon paper in the next few years will reach%. Carbon free carbon paper is used more and more widely, and the demand is also increasing. There is still a large market development space in China. Domestic high-quality carbon free paper is in short supply, and the gap can only be imported. This situation will continue for a long time

supply situation production situation on the morning of December 12 over the years since the founding of the people's Republic of China, the development of China's paper industry has basically maintained a sustained and stable development and kept pace with the national economy. However, since 2002, due to the pull of consumer demand, China's paper industry has developed very rapidly, and the paper production has increased significantly every year. In 2004, the domestic paper industry produced 49.5 million tons of paper and paperboard and 24.95 million tons of pulp. In terms of output, China is already a "big paper country"

in 2005, there were many new projects of paper, coated paper and white cardboard (white cardboard), and the capacity expansion was very obvious

in 2005, the new capacity of paper was 1.2 million tons, that of coated paper was 1.3 million tons, and that of white paperboard reached about 1.4 million tons

supply capacity forecast due to the expansion of many production projects of paper varieties with strong market demand, the domestic supply capacity of paper will be greatly improved, while the import volume will continue to decrease, and some paper varieties will gradually open up foreign markets

with the production of several major projects in the second half of 2005, it is expected that by 2006, the paper production capacity will reach 4.2 million tons, while the paper consumption will complete the functions of drawing, pressing, bending, shearing, stripping, tearing, friction coefficient, change, etc. to 3.95 million tons, and the domestic market will have a slightly oversupply situation. However, the demand for paper is growing rapidly. In 2010, the consumption demand for paper will reach 6.45 million tons, and the new production capacity will soon be digested by the new market demand

the capacity expansion of coated paper is also particularly serious. It is expected that the capacity of coated paper will reach 3.8 million tons by 2006. However, the application of copper paper will continue to expand. The growth of demand can absorb the increase of supply, but the market will gradually tend to saturation

the production of a large number of new production lines will make the supply of white paperboard (white paperboard) reach 8.1 million tons in 2006. In the short term, there will be a situation of oversupply, and overcapacity has appeared in the second half of this year

due to the large number of new carton board projects in 2003 and 2004, it is expected that the annual production capacity of more than 2.2 million tons may be increased in 2005, which can basically meet the growth of demand. At present, a large number of medium-grade and some high-grade cardboard products in China are self-sufficient, and only some high-grade Kraft linerboard products still need to rely on imports

changes in product prices domestic paper prices have been relatively stable, because paper consumption demand and customers are relatively stable. In the future, paper prices will decline due to the substantial expansion of domestic production capacity, but the decline will not be too large. After a sharp rise and then a fall in the price of coated paper in 2004, the price of coated paper tends to be stable in 2005. In the future, the price of coated paper will have some room for decline with the production of new capacity and the decline of the price of pulp raw materials. Due to the production capacity of 700000 tons of Zhonghua paper and the decline in pulp prices, the prices of white cardboard and white paperboard began to decline significantly after May

competitive analysis of domestic market at the stage of industrial competition, the competitive power of the domestic paper market is mainly divided into three parts, namely domestic companies with domestic paper listed companies as the main body, foreign-funded companies invested and established by foreign capital in China, and large international paper companies

domestic paper companies include domestic and foreign-funded companies. Domestic companies are mainly domestic listed companies such as Chenming Paper and Huatai Co., Ltd., and foreign-funded companies are represented by paper companies such as app paper and Nine Dragons Paper. These companies have very strong competitiveness

China's paper industry has a huge market, which is still in a situation of short supply at this stage. Many large international paper companies export their products to China and occupy a large number of market shares. These large international paper companies are important sources of supply for China's paper market and occupy an important position in the domestic market

in recent years, the world paper industry has entered a mature period, the degree of intensification has been quite high, and the output of pulp and paper is relatively stable. North America, northern Europe and Japan are the main bases of pulp and paper production in the world. The United States has always been the largest pulp and paper producer, and international large-scale paper-making enterprises are mainly concentrated in these countries

China's anti-dumping investigation on imported coated paper and paper and the anti-dumping investigation on imported kraft liner paper have prompted large international paper companies to set up factories in China to bypass punitive tariff trade barriers. The giants of international paper companies such as international paper, Prince paper, Stora Enso and UPM Sichuan have begun to invest and build factories in China, accelerating the pace of seizing the Chinese paper market

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source: Changjiang Securities

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